New Zealand is preparing for a newly regulated online casino market while tightening its restrictions on offshore operators. In the midst of it all, the ban on prediction markets sparks questions.
Over the years, many offshore platforms have catered to Kiwi players within an unregulated environment. This is mainly due to local gameplay being limited to TAB, New Zealand’s monopoly on sports and racing wagering.
This is all changing with the proposed Online Casino Gambling Bill, which has already cleared a key parliamentary committee stage and is headed for a full debate. If this bill passes, New Zealand will establish its first licensing regime for online casinos.
While the NZ market is finally opening and being regulated, only 15 licensed operators will be legally able to serve the market. Offshore platforms like SkyCity Entertainment Group and Christchurch Casino are already expressing their interest in obtaining these local licenses.
CEO Jason Walbridge has stated that gaming is evolving in exciting ways, bringing together the best of in-person and virtual gaming experiences. With that said, their priority is ensuring that players and communities are protected.
Entain, operator of global brands like PartyCasino, has stated that it is also planning on bidding for multiple licenses, as the regional CEO, Andrew Vouris, considers this opportunity big for its long-term strategy.
Should the bill pass successfully, the market will be fully operational by December 2026, with licenses awarded to the successful operators. Enforcement should start by the middle of 2027.
For New Zealand, that would be a significant shift from the grey-market reliance we see today to a structured, local, regulated system that gives players more choice while keeping safety as the priority.
With all these coming changes, New Zealand is tightening the reins, which, for prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi, is not great. Recently, the Department of Internal Affairs (DIA) ruled that these platforms are operating illegally under New Zealand Law.
According to the DIA, prediction markets fall within the legal definition of gambling because they involve staking money on uncertain outcomes. Polymarket and Kalshi, on the other hand, argue that their platforms more closely resemble financial trading rather than gambling. But regulators have rejected this distinction. The DIA stands firm that the activity still involves staking funds on uncertain outcomes, which is a key feature of online gambling.
At present, TAB New Zealand is legally allowed to offer online betting entertainment. All offshore platforms that offer similar services without regulatory approval are considered illegal. The DIA has made its stance quite clear on all prediction markets being considered gambling, and the lack of licensing means it's illegal. At the same time, no enforcement notices have been served yet.
Despite the popularity of prediction markets globally, their legal status is up for debate in various jurisdictions. And in New Zealand, they’ve now also been caught in the regulatory net with all the proposed changes moving towards a more formal online gambling framework.
The crackdown on prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi leaves us with one big question: Which other markets could land in the crosshairs with the new legislation? Some of the biggest markets that might just fall victim include crypto casinos, sweepstakes casinos, social casinos, and skill games.
Blockchain-based online gaming platforms are growing and gaining popularity across the world, and soon, regulators may shift focus to them. Crypto casinos are known to operate outside the traditional licensing regimes, offering players the benefit of anonymity and fast transactions. And while this is great for players, it provides regulators with challenges and concerns about player protection, responsible gambling, and AML.
Then there are sweepstakes casinos that use virtual currencies or sweep coins to skip the casino label. New Zealand may just view it as gambling if real-life value is attached to winnings, which might require licensing.
Finally, there are social casinos and skill games, which have been marketed as skill-based games or pure entertainment, but if they involve monetary stakes or prizes, they may be classified as gambling.
As New Zealand is formalising its online gambling market, there are many platforms offering monetary rewards that are now facing uncertainty in terms of regulation.
New Zealand’s current moves are mirroring global trends we’ve noted from various other regions, including the UK and Australia. Providing online bettors with a simple yet consistent message - That innovation in gambling and gaming must fall within the regulatory framework. This means that platforms like prediction markets, crypto casinos or sweepstakes should not assume they have space to operate outside of these laws.
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